Only if....

Thanks for the overwhelming response to my last post about my shenanigans in the share market... come on - 6 comments is overwhelming, sometimes I don’t get even one... so, thank you!
Well, some of the responses were pretty serious - guess most of the people can't take share market in other way but seriously, except for some jokers like me...

Anyways, let’s move on to the topic of the day…

I was thinking… what if Harivansh Rai Bachhan (Amitabh’s father) wasn’t a poet? He would not have used the title Bachhan – something the poets of those days used to do (may be they do it even today as well, I wouldn’t know)… Amitabh would have been Amitabh Rai, not Amitabh Bachhan (Rai is his real surname anyways) and Abhishek would have been Abhishek Rai… and, here is the funny part – Aishwarya Rai Bachhan would have been Aishwarya Rai Rai…

But then, do you expect a name like Amitabh Rai to be superstar (no offense to all my Rai friends!)? And we all know that Aishwarya did not marry Abhishek, she married into the Bachhan family… and if so, if Abhishek would have been Rai, may Aishwaraya Rai would have been Aishwarya Rai Oberoi!

Confused? Go back and read it again :)

Expert Advice...

After keeping away all my life, I finally added the vice to the long list of the ones that I already possess... well, I quit smoking last year and had a big empty space for a big one... I thought it was only fair and took the plunge (how the human minds rationalize – big asset and bigger liability)... I am talking about the share market – i started trading actively, especially in futures and options (F&O)... the fact that i had quit my job helped the matters – i had all the time to trade and do the “research”...

(if u r planning to quit because i am talking about share market, pls don’t... stay on...)

The experience of the last few months has been exciting... The things started very well... I made money for the first 2 months... (i know, i know – i am the same guy who kept preaching people to keep away from the evil called F&O and how everyone i know who did not has only lost money and how i am yet to see a person who has made ANY money... may be i am like one of those catholic church priests...)

Anyways, you can call that beginner’s luck... it indeed was – for the next two months, i lost all the money i had made and more...

I did some thinking and realized that after having made money for two months, my mind rationalized that i had become an expert, that i had cracked the code and as a result i was doing deeper research and was making the “sure shot” calls... i knew everything!

Oh, that was so stupid – to think that i had become an expert...

Let me give you an example of how the so called “experts” assess the market... i get a weekly mailer, following are the excerpts –

It starts thus – “We understand the need for the right research to make smart investment decisions...”

That’s good, very reassuring... then it goes blah blah bluh bluh bleh bleh, sprinkles some data points from here and there and comes up with the following conclusion –

“For the Nifty, the 5,150 remains an important resistance sustaining above which it can test 5300 levels. On the downside, the 4,960-5,000 zone would act as support for the coming week”

For uninitiated, it simply means – the market will go up, go down or remain where it is right now!! And they call themselves experts!!!

In other words, the so called experts are no experts – their predictions are as good (or as bad) as the “daily forecast” column of the newspapers OR the weather predictions...

And there I was, fooling myself thinking I had “cracked the code” and was making “sure shot” calls... no wonder i lost money...

So what did i do? Very simple... i went back to the basic reality of “i do not know anything about the share market”... which is what i was doing for the first 2 months... i was going with a very basic technical call to assess if the share is going to go up or down... it worked more often than not...

Result – the approach worked and i started making money again...

So, where do i stand right now? In the 6 months of existence in the share market, i have broken even – made, lost and made... wait a minute... that’s if i don’t consider the brokerage... after considering brokerage, i am still in the RED...

So here is an “expert” comment – the only people who definitely make money are the brokers – doesn’t matter if you make or lose money in the process... they definitely do...

So do i plan to stick around or get out?

Of course i plan to stick around – it’s so much of fun! And what’s wrong in making money when “you don’t know anything”...

ps – If you need help with “making money while not knowing anything”, i provide “expert advice” at a very reasonable price... call me!

Oh! Mr. Modi

It's amazing how the human mind works. The most amazing of the minds start breaking down beyond a certain point. It's greed that got better of Raju - he took his book cooking innovation a bit too far...

And now, it's Modi. Is it his ego or unedning greed or is he just too high on the success of IPL to realize what he is doing... First, he showed the middle finger to the govt during IPL2 by taking it to SA and now, someone who was once implicated for an armed robbery and has enough and more dealings within IPL setup to be easily pointed a finger at, decided to take on a union minister... I dont know (and don't care) if Tharoor is at a fault but Modi is plain stupid... Sheeshe ke gharon mein rahne wale doosaron par patthar nahi phenkte... it's the golden rule that Modi has blatantly broken...

"The issue will be swatted and it would be over soon... just like before" is what Modi claimed a couple of days back... I have my doubts... And I suggest he prepares himself for some good, nice swatting... coming soon!
 
I love the game of cricket and IPL has been a great entertainer... The events of the last few days has taken the fun out of IPL... I feel sorry for myself as well as for Mr Modi... Oh! Mr. Modi... All the best nevertheless...

Am I going to die in terrorist attack?

Public safety is a huge concern in India today. Threat perception is very high. And it's getting worse and closer by the day. On Feb 11th, I was discussing the security issues and terrorism in India with a distinguished gentleman at the Pune airport. He was in a hurry so I had to meet him at the airport. Two days later, on Feb 13th, the unfortunate German Bakery incident took place. Less than 4 kilometers away from the airport.


This morning, I saw the bomb squad entering State Bank of India. I still don't know if it was a drill or a hoax or an actual threat. There is nothing in the news yet. The bank is less than a kilometer away from my house. It's getting closer and it's scary.

But wait a minute. Why am I talking about all this on this blog? This is not supposed to be serious blog. Right? This is why – I am gung ho about the upcoming IPL. Version 3.0.

For the uninitiated, IPL is the Indian Premier League - T20 matches played between clubs of a colonial game called cricket – not played in white clothes anymore, unless you play for five days. This one is a three hour version and apart from cricket , you get to watch skimpily clad women dancing at the drop of a hat, sorry catch! Another thing – the game is played on a pitch about a hundred yards away while the girls dance right in front of you. You know what I mean. It's more than cricket and you might be interested even if you don't know what this game means. (Disclaimer – I love the game and insist on watching even five day version, including the ones between Australia and New Zealand – which, btw, has become easier now that I have quit my job. Disclaimer 2 – I did not quit my job for watching cricket (or for writing stupid blogs, for that matter))

Coming back to the game of cricket and IPL, some of the games will be played in New Mumbai and Nagpur which are not very far from Pune. I do want to watch some of the matches in the stadium (apart from some in the multiplex – another novely of IPL v3. Lalit Modi ji ki jai ho!). Now the issue is this – there already is lot of discouragement from friends and family. It's supposed to be risky. What if there is a bomb blast (which, in fact, is a possibility)?

Now, please consider the following data (sources: various) -

Odds of dying in a car crash – 1:185
Odds of dying in a terrorist attack – 1:19,159,765
Odds of winning a jackpot – 1:13,983,816

My chances of winning a jackpot are higher than my chances of of dying in a terrorist attack. And I know it for a fact that I will never win a jackpot. Yes, I do increase my chances by going for an IPL match or by going to any other public place but so do I by buying an actual lottery ticket. The buying ticket thing hasn't worked for me till now. Also, my chance of dying in a car crash are really scary. I should stop travelling in a car before I stop going for movies and IPL matches, I guess.

Btw, I am planning to drive down to the stadium. I will drive carefully!
 
Happy Living folks!!